Enterprise Honolulu

Demographic Projections
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Long range Projections of Hawaii’s Economy are produced and updated by the Research and Economic Analysis Division of the Department of Business, Economic development & Tourism (DBEDT). The latest update, dated July 29, 2010, shows growth of resident population averaging under 1 percent per year from 2007 to 2035. That amounts to an increase of about 25 percent over the entire period. However, within the population, residents 65 and over are expected increase in number by more than 3 percent annually for much of the 2007 to 2035 period. While this does not sound excessive, it amounts to more than a doubling of this older population between 2007 and 2035.

The number of children to 17 years will increase slower than the overall average growth rate for period except for an uptick in growth from 2015 to 2020. Overall this segment of the population will increase by about 25 percent over the entire 2007 to 2035 period.

On the other hand, the middle population group from 18 to 64 years will show only modest growth, well under the overall resident average. For the entire 2007 to 2035 period this segment, which represents the bulk of the working population, will likely increase only about 9 percent.

These differing rates between the older and younger populations are mostly a result of the aging of the baby boom generation. Proportionately fewer workers, more retirees and the needs of an older population will result in significant challenges and changes to the way government and businesses produce and deliver products and services.

By county, the Island of Hawaii will likely see the fastest growth over the period, increasing by 62 percent. Honolulu is projected to show the slowest population growth at 15 percent.

The size of Hawaii’s workforce is expected to increase at a rate just under 1.0 percent per year from 2007 to 2035. However there are significant differences in the rates of growth by industry. As shown in Table 4. Health services will likely show the sharpest growth, with the number of workers increasing nearly 54 percent from 2007 to 2035.

The next fastest growing industry in terms of jobs is projected to be education services at 32 percent for the period. At the lower end of the growth projection is food processing, in which jobs are expected to grow only 6 percent for the 2007 to 2035 period.

Manufacturing and Agriculture are also expected to lag behind the rest of the economy, growing less than 10 percent in jobs for the period in total. These projections are based on past trends adjusted by analysis of more recent conditions that may impact growth in the future. They do not incorporate policy goals which could result in faster growth for industries such as technology, and arts and culture.

Source: 2010 the Hawaii Statewide Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy (CEDS) – Prefinal